一个碳减排目标是一个碳减排目标是一个碳减排目标
An emissions target based on 1990 levels is an emissions target based on 2005 levels is a reduction of carbon intensity. This alternative title better represents present reduction commitments from the EU, the US, and China.
All three have accepted carbon reductions. In particular, the US and China’s promises signify further symbolic progress. During Kyoto Protocol discussions, these pledges would have been astounding. Over a decade later, they inspire sentiments of “it’s about time” as well as some optimism.
It is important to understand how these targets differ. Bashing the EU’s reduction pledges of 95% by 2050 and 30% by 2020 appears inappropriate, especially since these cuts are based on 1990 emissions levels. Nevertheless, 1990 is a convenient choice. Post-1990 Europe was influenced by declining Soviet economies. This collapse decreased European emissions, a decline that counts towards their reduction target. Their 30% target thus becomes a 20% cut.
The US appeared inaccurately dedicated by pledging a 17% reduction target by 2020 on a 2005 emissions baseline. Politics shaped this decision. It satisfies environmentalists’ demands for a firm commitment as well as industrial powers in how they will not deal with major changes. A 17% commitment on a 2005 emissions baseline equals a 4-6% decrease on a 1990 baseline. Although it might be too little too late, President Obama’s pledge contains more constructive reductions in the decades to come: 30% in 2025, 42% in 2030 and 83% in 2050.
China’s target of a 40-45% reduction of “the carbon intensity of the economy” by 2020 sounds impressive. Unfortunately, this aligns with their current path. This will only become difficult if their GDP does not proceed as predicted. Michael A Levi, Director of the Program on Energy Security and Climate Change, explains,
“Emissions and GDP projections in the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) 2009 International Energy Outlook (IEO), published in May 2009, translate to a 46 percent Chinese emissions-intensity cut from 2005 to 2020. Similar projections in the International Energy Agency (IEA) 2009 World Energy Outlook (WEO), published in November 2009, are equivalent to a 40 percent Chinese emissions- intensity cut over the same period.”
Carbon intensity means the carbon emitted per yuan. By 2020, China’s commitment translates to a 0-12% reduction of their current emissions path or a 40% increase of present CO2 emission. It signifies more environmentally conscious technology developments, which is already high on China’s agenda. Refusing binding emission decreases because their pollution is comparatively new seems fair, but not in the face of future climate change’s grave effects. China must make actual cuts.
(Click here for more information of China’s emission reduction proposal)
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s 2007 report warns that developing countries need 10-40% reductions below 1990 levels by 2020 and 40-95% reductions by 2050 “for low to medium stabilization.” Seeing as the EU claims to lead the way, their short-term target falls short of adequate. US and China’s targets consequently denote a failure. US emissions levels stand among the world’s highest. A 4-6% reduction on a 1990 baseline spoils global efforts. It also deviates from the G8 leaders’ recent goals. Since China’s economy and emissions arguably necessitate their reassignment as a developed country, their 0-12% reduction of 2009 emissions levels amplifies this hindrance. Continuing this emissions level will lead to at least a 2°C increase in surface temperature, as well as increasingly grave changes in our climate.
Read Full Post »